Charting the market impact of the coronavirus across 150 industries – and forging a path forward

Charting the market impact of the coronavirus across 150 industries – and forging a path forward

As the world continues to count the mounting costs it is vital we understand what comes next, businesses must now adjust to survive.

This week SOPRO assembled a Think Tank of experts to review exactly how businesses are going to be affected – and which sectors will be hit the hardest – by the measures being put in place to counter the spread of COVID-19. 

Here’s how we collated our data – and what it means for your business.

Mapping the commercial impact of the coronavirus prevention measures by industry sector

Our starting point was to consider in exactly what way the measures introduced to contain the coronavirus outbreak will impact each industry.

We considered the seven measures most widely implemented.  These include:

1. Enforcement of social distancing (i.e. no crowds)
2. Cessation of international travel
3. Disruption to the international supply-chain
4. Office/plant closures and introduction of homeworking only
5. Lockdown scenarios (i.e. no non-emergency movement of people)
6. Impact on workforce (i.e. 20% sickness rates)
7. Other behavioural factors that might affect particular industries only

We assessed the impact of each measure on both the supply side and the demand side for each industry.

• This represents 14 assessments per industry.
• Repeated across 150 major industries.
• Producing a total of 2,100 unique market impact assessments.

The full summary report is available in Excel, free of charge.  Please contact me at ryan@sopro.io to request it.

I have also uploaded the report here if you can tolerate Google Sheets:  https://drive.google.com/file/d/18zRVUE7e9yTNjC-8Ch8MUDaS-VlJVBEW/view?usp=sharing

Before you dive in, please note this is an informed assessment, not a scientific paper.  It’s a powerful data set nonetheless, and one that you can use together with other resources to prioritise and strategise in the weeks ahead.  

NB.  Use the link above or zoom in on your browser, the resolution is there.

Our findings: how will COVID-19 prevention measures impact each industry

Take your time to review but, as we’ve already had time to digest and analyse these figures, you may want to read our summarised key findings below.

The impact of coronavirus measures on demand (by industry)

Contrary to our expectations we discovered that many industries are likely to experience increased demand.  This is already visible in many cases.

In fact, as much as two-thirds (65%) of all industries will experience stable or increased demand – with more than a third (39%) likely to see increased demand.

For B2B, B2Both and B2C the percentage of industries experiencing increased demand hovers between 34% and 38%, but for B2G industries nearly three-quarters can expect increased demand.

The 58 industries experiencing increased demand across all types are:

The impact of coronavirus measures on ability to supply (by industry)

When we looked at the impact on the ability to supply across our 150 industries it painted very much a different picture.

And, of course, if a service or product cannot be supplied (because it can’t be delivered or because the supply chain has broken), then an increase in demand will not necessarily produce increased commercial activity.

Here, we have classified a stable ability to supply as being above a marginal reduction (i.e. less than -10%).

As can be seen nearly all industries are being hit by a decreased ability to supply.

Given the all-pervasive nature of this effect we won’t divide this down into business types, although it’s worth noting in passing that B2B businesses seem to hold up the strongest.

The nine industries only experiencing a marginally reduced ability to supply were:

Cross mapping the effects of COVID-19 prevention measures on supply and demand.

When we layer the effects of both demand and supply across the industry grid the results look like this:

Of the 38 industries with stable demand, five maintain a stable ability to supply.

• Computer Software
• Executive Office
• Graphic Design
• Information Services
• Program Development

Of the industries with increased demand, four maintain a stable ability to supply.

• Computer Games
• E-Learning
• Human Resources
• Public Policy

Teasing out the supply/demand permutations

Nine industries will experience increased demand and stable operational capability.
These businesses should be ramping up to capture and service additional demand.
To do this they may need your help.

These industries are:

• Computer Software
• Executive Office
• Graphic Design
• Information Services
• Program Development
• Computer Games
• E-Learning
• Human Resources
• Public Policy

37% of industries will experience increased demand alongside reduced operational capability.

These businesses need urgent support to solve specific operational challenges in order to service demand. They also need assistance in identifying and getting to market alternative product/service variants.

They risk cashflow problems, may require financial support and, if adverse conditions continue, some will consider downsizing.

Smaller businesses will be at the highest risk of closure, as a result we can expect to see consolidation in these industries this year.

If you are able to help these businesses operate there is an immediate need to do so.

These industries are:

• Accounting
• Alternative Medicine
• Broadcast Media
• Computer & Network Security
• Computer Hardware
• Computer Networking
• Consumer Electronics
• Consumer Goods
• Consumer Services
• Financial Services
• Government Administration
• Hospital & Health Care
• Import and Export
• International Affairs
• International Trade and Development
• Internet
• Law Enforcement
• Legal Services
• Legislative Office
• Logistics and Supply Chain
• Machinery
• Market Research
• Mechanical or Industrial Engineering
• Media Production
• Medical Devices
• Medical Practice
• Mental Health Care
• Military
• Nanotechnology
• Newspapers
• Online Media
• Outsourcing/Offshoring
• Package/Freight Delivery
• Packaging and Containers
• Paper & Forest Products
• Pharmaceuticals
• Plastics
• Political Organization
• Professional Training & Coaching
• Public Relations and Communications
• Public Safety
• Publishing
• Retail
• Security and Investigations
• Supermarkets
• Telecommunications
• Think Tanks
• Tobacco
• Transportation/Trucking/Railroad
• Utilities
• Venture Capital & Private Equity
• Wholesale
• Wine and Spirits
• Wireless
• Writing and Editing

33% of businesses will experience decreased demand and reduced operational capability.

It is important that these businesses understand exactly where they are being hit hardest.  I.e. on the supply or demand side – and our impact delta can help here (see main table).

If these are among your customer base you need to consider ways to replace inevitable lost business – and we’ve identified some places to start looking above.

These businesses are:

• Airlines/Aviation
• Apparel & Fashion
• Arts and Crafts
• Automotive
• Aviation & Aerospace
• Building Materials
• Capital Markets
• Civic & Social Organization
• Civil Engineering
• Commercial Real Estate
• Construction
• Education Management
• Entertainment
• Environmental Services
• Events Services
• Facilities Services
• Fine Art
• Food & Beverages
• Fund-Raising
• Furniture
• Health, Wellness and Fitness
• Higher Education
• Hospitality
• Industrial Automation
• Investment Banking
• Investment Management
• Judiciary
• Leisure, Travel & Tourism
• Libraries
• Maritime
• Motion Pictures and Film
• Museums and Institutions
• Nonprofit Organization Management
• Oil & Energy
• Performing Arts
• Philanthropy
• Photography
• Primary/Secondary Education
• Printing
• Railroad Manufacture
• Ranching
• Real Estate
• Recreational Facilities and Services
• Religious Institutions
• Restaurants
• Sporting Goods
• Sports
• Textiles
• Translation and Localization
• Warehousing

Has your business strategically adjusted to the pandemic landscape?

Perhaps more than ever, now is not the time for battening down the hatches.

For those who can adjust to the new landscape, there are opportunities out there, and businesses crying out for solutions.

We have a duty to maintain business as usual wherever possible. 

Nobody is going to do this for us, so I suggest we get cracking.